I wonder if the Web 2.0 bubble will burst just as spectacularly as the first did. Maybe it won’t; maybe it will just silently implode over the course of a few months and nobody will publicly acknowledge it, because it would be just too embarrassing.Regardless of how it will happen, I’m beginning to think that the when is clear: Now.I think that right now we’re seeing the first signs that, once more, VCs and startups are going to learn that there is no unlimited growth. That their users’ attention spans are going to run out. The first reports are popping up that, maybe users aren’t that interested in Facebook and MySpace anymore. Writes the Creative Capital Blog:
But the pain is not just a MySpace problem. It seems to be an industry-wide issue. The total audience of U.S. social networks seems to be stuck at a low-to-mid-single digit growth rate, while the engagment metrics are falling for just about everyone.
Here in Germany, we have a Facebook clone called StudiVZ. They changed their Terms and Services about a month ago, and required users to accept the new ones in order to access the site. Problem was, there were a lot of rumors that the new terms were very evil, privacy-wise. To opt-out of most of the spying, you had to surf around the site and find, after about 6-8 pages, the opt-out confirmation page.Now it seems that most users didn’t even bother. Many used the new conditions as a good excuse to finally delete their account, and even those who stayed mostly changed all their personal information, names, university courses, everything, to nonsense; because it seemed easier to do that than finding the opt-out page.Now even if you don’t have all your friends added, you won’t find them, because they all have fantasy names and are in courses like “The Dark Side of Economics, by Darth Vader”.It’s getting silent on StudiVZ.As the article I linked to above shows, most other social networking sites have declining growth ratings. Facebook is even predicting they will be losing a lot of revenue:
That means the company would have a negative cash flow of about $150 million (EBITDA minus CapEx), rather than break even, as it does now.
What I’m saying is: This is it. This is the beginning of the next bubble burst. Prepare for a hot ride.
It‘s quiet in here! Why not leave a response?